Compared with 2004, the automobile market in 2005 can be described as “turning feng shuiâ€. In 2004, the passenger car market was sluggish, and the commercial vehicle market was booming. In 2005, the passenger car market became warmer, and small-displacement economy vehicles were even hot, but the commercial vehicle market continued to slump. According to the statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the cumulative sales of trucks in 2005 fell slightly by 0.59% year-on-year, of which heavy truck sales fell for the first time in eight years, and the year-on-year decline was as high as 33.19%.
Market Trends in 2005
——The old brand was falling and the new brand was stronger against the market. Before the first half of 2003, domestic heavy-duty truck products were basically in the "practical" stage. From the second half of 2004 to 2004, they entered the "comfortable" stage. After entering the year 2005, domestic heavy-duty truck products have clearly entered the "quality-oriented "stage. According to 2005 data, except for Baotou North Benz, which has a significant increase in its brand reputation sales of 13.65%, Dongfeng, FAW, Beiqi Foton, Shaanxi Heavy Duty Truck, Chongqing Hongyan and other old companies and brands have appeared to varying degrees. The decline. For the “heavy army†of several industries in the heavy truck market, such as Jianghuai Gefa, Anhui Hualing, and Nanchang Lingye, there has been a rapid growth momentum, in which JAC heavy truck sales increased 222.67% year-on-year, Anhui Valin heavy truck chassis sales increased 564.34% year-on-year. In the process of the heavy truck market going up and down, why do users appear to prefer to abandon heavy-duty truck brands that are "mature and cheap," and choose these "new industry army" brands with higher prices? In fact, the most fundamental reason is quality. Of course, the base number of the “New Industry Army†product is not large, so it has little impact on the entire heavy truck market.
- Significant changes have occurred in the product sales structure. The share of special vehicles in the entire industry rose, resulting in a small (-27.35%) decline in heavy-duty chassis, with the highest share. Sales of heavy-duty trucks and semitrailer tractors fell sharply from the same period of last year, with decline rates of 32.84% and 42.76%, respectively. In addition, the trend of the development of heavy trucks toward large tonnages is very obvious. The smaller the tonnage is, the smaller the tonnage is, the higher the year-on-year decline is. The larger the tonnage, the higher the year-on-year increase.
- The concentration of the heavy truck market remains high. The market share of the top three heavy truck market has reached 72.56%, while the top six market share is as high as 91.63%. The outcome of the policy of oversupply and market segmentation has further increased the market concentration of semi-trailer tractors and Class II chassis over the same period of the previous year.
- The heavy truck export market is good. The heavy-duty truck companies are looking outwards and are actively exploring the international market. The export vehicle market has achieved “eye-catching†performance over previous years. The larger the tonnage and horsepower of the exported vehicles, the more popular they are. North Africa, Central Asia and the Middle East are the main hotspots.
Factors Affecting Market Trends in 2005
In 2005, China's heavy-duty truck market has shrunk dramatically. The reasons for this analysis are manifold. The author believes that the most important influencing factors are the following:
——As the growth rate of investment in GDP and fixed assets has slowed down significantly, its ability to pull the truck industry has weakened. At the end of the “Tenth Five-Year Plan†period, the national economy entered the adjustment period, and the medium- and heavy-duty card industry, which is the provider of production information for economic construction, was also brought into the adjustment phase.
——In 2005, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Circular on Adjusting the 2005 National Economic Planâ€, which reduced the 19.1 billion tons of road transport originally planned for 2005 to 18 billion tons, and the original 2.59 billion tons of railway transportation to 26.7. Billion tons. Lowering the road transportation and upgrading the railway transportation directly affected the sales of heavy trucks.
——After the full implementation of overloading and over-limit treatment, it has caused a series of effects. On the one hand, the implementation of documents such as GB1589 and GB7258 reduced the carrying capacity of trucks and tractors and constrained sales. On the other hand, truck overload transportation was significantly reduced, which prolonged the service life of trucks and caused a decrease in demand for updates in 2005. . Of course, the strict implementation of over-the-counter jobs has led some users to start changing cars and buying multi-axle vehicles and heavy-duty tractors that meet the current regulatory requirements and can carry more cargo, thereby stimulating the demand for these heavy trucks.
—— Since 1998, heavy trucks have become the fastest growing category in the market. They have continuously exhibited a “blowout†growth trend, which has prompted the continuous expansion of the heavy truck market, resulting in a further reduction in market demand growth.
- The increase in prices of steel, coal, and other resources has increased the manufacturing costs of auto companies. The continuous rise in fuel prices has made it difficult to reduce operating costs, and has led some potential users to abandon the purchase plan.
- The consumer price index (CPI) reached 5.3%, which led to an increase in auto loan interest rates, a rise in user credit car purchase costs, and a tightening of consumer credit policies, which severely restricted the potential demand of self-owned fund users.
- The State 2 standard has been fully implemented, and Beijing and Shanghai are ready to implement the State 3 standard. With the ever-evolving emission standards, the implementation of emission regulations has become more stringent, placing higher demands on manufacturers and at the same time increasing the cost of buying cars by users, which also imposes restrictions on the demand for users.
——The transportation industry has developed toward intensification, and the transportation efficiency has been increasing faster than the growth rate of traffic. At the same time, the management of coal mining safety has been further strengthened this year, and many small coal mines have been sealed off, which has inhibited the potential demand for transportation.
—— After the tonnage of the above-mentioned card announcement was increased, the road maintenance fee was obviously increased. The freight increase was less than the increase in operating cost, and the profit of bicycles decreased, which affected the new demand of users engaged in the transportation industry.
——Some old-brand heavy truck companies are “falling their heads†in terms of quality. Due to the insufficiency of product supply in 2004, there were many problems in the quality control of these manufacturers, including the quality control of suppliers and remodeling plants. As a result, the quality of certain products fluctuate greatly, resulting in a gradual loss of product reputation.
- Some heavy truck companies have too much inventory. Due to the heavy sales of heavy-duty trucks in 2004, some companies were greatly happy and increased their output. Some of these models now do not appear to be required by the market and have to be held in the hands of dealers. For example, the Olympic business opportunities that attracted wide attention in 2004 were not as good as predicted beforehand. As a result, the sales of dump trucks produced by individual manufacturers in Beijing were not satisfactory. According to a senior analyst, the heavy truck market in 2004 had at least 50,000 to 80,000 vehicles in the virtual increment and had to be digested in the first half of 2005.
The market will show a wave of gradual increase in 2006
In 2006, the domestic heavy truck market was mainly affected by the following factors: First, GDP will continue to grow, and fixed asset investment will have sufficient inertia. According to the “China Economic Blue Book†published on December 11, 2005, China’s economy will continue to maintain its high growth and low inflation pattern in 2006, and macroeconomic control policies will continue to maintain “double robustnessâ€, with GDP forecast to grow by about 8.8%, compared to 2005. With a drop of 0.6%, fixed assets investment increased by about 23.4%, which is 5% lower than in 2005. The increase in investment in fixed assets provides a solid foundation for the demand for dump trucks. Although 2006 will be slightly lower than 2005, the total demand for dump trucks will remain relatively stable. Second, the total freight volume will continue to grow, and the alternative trend of long-distance road transport for water and rail transport will not change, but the demand for regional road transport will continue to grow. At the same time, the country’s reorganization policy for coal mines is constantly exploring and improving. Winter and spring are the peak period of coal use, so coal-compliant transport vehicles that meet regulations will usher in a new round of peak sales. Third, the trend of improving logistics transportation efficiency will not be reversed, and the efficiency of road transportation will continue to increase. This will inevitably increase the market space for high-powered tractors. Fourth, laws and regulations are basically stable and there will be no major changes in the structure of commodities. Fifth, energy tension remains the same. The trend of rising fuel prices will not change, and the way users will profit will be adjusted. Sixth, the trend of more rational buying of cars by users will not change. Competition will shift from competitions in the past to the comprehensive marketing capabilities by means of announcements, allocations, and prices. Depth attention to customer needs will lead to upgrading of heavy truck marketing methods. . Seventh, the outward-looking trend of the Chinese economy continues to increase, and commercial vehicle exports will continue to grow. Eighth, the lower sales base in 2005 provided greater possibilities for growth in 2006.
To sum up, I expect that the heavy truck market in 2006 will show a wave-like increase trend compared to 2005. In the first half of this year, the heavy truck market will be stable, and there will be a possible upswing in the second half of the year. Changed the tradition of heavy trucks in the first half of the year better than the second half of the year. Specifically, in terms of quantity, it is expected that the total market demand in 2006 will be slightly enlarged, and it will increase by 8% to 10% year-on-year, about 250,000 to 260,000 vehicles.
From the perspective of market segments, the special-purpose modified vehicle market is the main highlight of the heavy truck in 2005. Therefore, it is expected that the demand for the second-class chassis will rebound in 2006, and its market share will account for about 50% of the entire heavy-duty truck market; The car market is most affected by the overriding policy, and the demand is expected to decline slightly. The market share will account for 20% to 22% of the entire heavy truck market; the heavy truck market share will account for 28% to 30% of the entire heavy truck market. .
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