“At present, the ex-factory price of melamine is only 8,300 yuan (ton price, the same below), which has dropped by 2200 yuan year-on-year. Calculating the current urea price, the company will lose at least 500 yuan per metric ton of melamine.†May 21, Henan Zhongyuan Guo Quanpu, general manager of Dahua Group Sales Company, said to reporters with anxiety.
According to Guo Quanpu introduction, although the domestic urea market has come out of the rally in volume and price before the beginning of May this year, the highest ex-factory price has exceeded 2,500 yuan, but it did not drive melamine prices higher. On the contrary, domestic melamine prices have remained low this year despite pressure from unfavorable factors such as blocked exports, overcapacity, and shrinking downstream demand. In early March, it even hit a new low in recent years. Among them, the high-pressure method melamine ex-factory price once touched a bottom of 7,800 yuan, and the atmospheric pressure method fell below 7,500 yuan. As a result, production cuts and production cuts have rapidly increased, and the industry's operating rate has dropped below 40%. After oscillating and digesting inventory in the past two months, the price of melamine stabilized and recovered after the price of urea continued to rise. However, the current price is still lower than the average cost of the industry, and the overall operating rate is still only 50%. For the later trend of the melamine market, Guo Quanpu believes that he is not very optimistic, and it is difficult to change.
It is difficult to effectively amplify domestic demand Domestic melamine is mainly used for the processing of laminates, coatings, paper, textiles, leather and molding compounds. Among them, laminates are the largest consumer of melamine, and its consumption of melamine accounts for more than 50% of total domestic consumption. The demand for laminates depends on the rise and fall of the real estate market.
Since the second half of last year, the state’s policy to regulate and control the real estate market has gradually emerged, and the transaction price, transaction volume, and new house construction area of ​​commercial housing have decreased significantly. Since the determination of the central government to regulate the real estate market this year has not been shaken, it indicates that the downturn in the real estate market will continue. This will drastically reduce the demand for decorative materials and furniture such as laminates and reduce the demand for melamine in this area.
As for other areas of consumption such as coatings, papermaking, textiles, leather, molding plastics, etc., affected by the macroeconomic slowdown in macroeconomic growth, this year's growth will be very limited. The demand for melamine is not only difficult to effectively enlarge, but may even shrink. Will inhibit the rise in melamine prices.
Overcapacity suppresses price increase In 2010, China's melamine production capacity has reached 1.2 million tons. According to the output of 650,000 tons in the year, the utilization rate of the equipment is only 54%. From 2011 to 2012, there are 13 enterprises in the country, and a total of 450,000 tons of melamine projects will be put into operation; in 2013, 280,000 tons of new production capacity will be released, The contradiction between overcapacity will be further aggravated. Recently, there will be 30,000 tons/year of Shandong Haotian Chemical Co., Ltd., 50,000 tons/year of Yanhua Henan Junhua Group, and 50,000 tons/year of Sichuan Golden Elephant Group, Hongze, Jiangsu Province, etc., plus Chongqing Construction. With the restart of peaks and other companies, domestic production capacity will surge by more than 200,000 tons. In particular, most of the above projects use the third-generation gas quenching technology of Beijing Jingjing Technology Co., Ltd., which not only saves investment, has a short process, and consumes little energy, but also realizes the integration of upstream and downstream technologies to make it cost more than 1,000 yuan. In the current gloomy market of melamine, after these devices are put into production, in order to rob the market, it is bound to set off a price war, which will once again turn the market that has just stabilized.
Impediments to exports have intensified the contradiction between supply and demand in the country. China is currently the world's largest producer, consumer, and exporter of melamine. In recent years, China's melamine exports account for more than one-third of the world's total exports and 20%-40% of domestic production. Mainly exported to Europe, North America and Southeast Asia. However, the global economic downturn has reduced the demand for melamine in the above areas. Coupled with the European Union's anti-dumping duties on China's melamine products, Chinese companies have basically lost the European market and their exports have naturally declined. Domestic excess melamine products are difficult to adjust and digest through the international market, as in previous years, which has aggravated the contradiction in supply in the domestic market and caused the price of melamine to decline.
In addition, due to the end of the peak season for spring plowing, the approaching of a window of high tariffs for exports, and the concentration of approximately 8.7 million tons of new urea production capacity released this year, the price of urea that has continued to rise in the previous period has now begun to turn downward, and there has been an accelerated decline in the latter period. Possible. Once the price of urea falls, the melamine price will lose its cost support and will not be able to continue to rebound.
However, Guo Quanpu also stressed that although the price of melamine is difficult to increase in the later period, the space for the callback has also been blocked. According to urea cost accounting for 82% of the total cost of melamine calculations, the current price of 2,380 yuan urea, even if the urine - amine co-production enterprises, the melamine complete cost is also more than 8,700 yuan. The current high-pressure method melamine ex-factory price is generally only 8200 ~ 8600 yuan, it is clear that the vast majority of companies operating at a loss. If the prices fall again later, more devices will be unable to withstand the huge losses and cut production, stop production, reduce market supply, and curb the downward trend in melamine prices. Even if the domestic urea ex-factory price plunged to the cost line of most companies with a price of 2,200 yuan, the full cost of the corresponding melamine will also exceed 8,000 yuan. Therefore, although the melamine market is unlikely to perform well in the later stages, it will never be further adjusted back. It is expected that the ex-factory price of high-pressure melamine may fluctuate from 8200 to 9,000 yuan, and the normal pressure ex-factory price will exceed 7800 yuan.
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