2014 is an unrelenting year of transformation for the Chinese automotive industry. After the golden decade of sales arrogance, although still sitting on the throne of global sales crown, but the transition from a big car country to a car power country has a huge opportunity for car companies, but also faces severe challenges. Who can truly achieve metamorphosis and rebirth in the big waves? Grasping the correct development trend of the car market is undoubtedly a prerequisite. What are the variables in the Chinese auto market in 2015? Let us guess.
1 Chinese market continues to lead the public to surpass Toyota to win
In 2014, China's auto market hit a new global high, with production and sales exceeding 23 million units, ranking first in the world for six consecutive years. Behind this huge number is that in 2014, automobile production and sales only increased by 7.3% and 6.9% respectively. In 2014, the national auto market fell overall and returned to single digit growth. After the rapid growth of the double digits of the “Golden Decadeâ€, what will happen to the auto market in 2015?
The China Automobile Association predicts that "the growth rate of total production and sales of automobiles in 2015 will be similar to that of GDP, at around 7%." That is to say, the overall growth rate of the automobile market in 2015 will be further reduced compared with 2014, and the automobile market outlook is not optimistic. However, there are also some good news that can give the auto market a chance to breathe. For example, the Lunar New Year is relatively late this year, making the "Black February" of previous years into the "Red February" of this year; the gradual recovery of self-owned brands and the new energy vehicles. Continuous promotion and so on. However, it is bold to predict that although China's auto market entered a single-digit growth period in 2015, it should not be a problem to continue to be the world's number one producer.
The impact of the Chinese auto market on the global auto market cannot be underestimated. Thanks to the help of the Chinese auto market, perhaps the position of the 2015 “Global Sales Champion†may change. In 2014, Toyota continued to maintain its position as the global sales champion with a slight advantage. Volkswagen II and GM third. Although Toyota won the 2014 sales champion, its original target of 2014 annual sales of 10.32 million vehicles was not achieved. At the same time, the second-placed Volkswagen is constantly shortening the gap with the champion. In 2014, Volkswagen only lost 90,000 fewer than Toyota. Not only that, Toyota also announced that it has lowered its 2015 sales target to 10.15 million units. This is only 10,000 units higher than Volkswagen's sales in 2014. Who will become the "global sales champion" in 2015 will be the biggest attraction of the global auto market this year.
2 New energy vehicle outbreak year, hybrid salted fish turned over
If 2014 is the "first year" of the popularity of new energy vehicles, then 2015 will be the year of the explosion of new energy vehicles. According to statistics from the China Automobile Association, in 2014, new energy vehicles produced 78,499 vehicles and sold 74,763 vehicles, an increase of 3.5 times and 3.2 times respectively over the previous year. Among them, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles were 48,605 and 450,48 respectively, up 2.4 times and 2.1 times respectively over the previous year; the production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were 29,894 and 29,715 respectively, up 8.1 times and 8.8 times respectively over the previous year.
In 2015, with the continuous release of the national support policy for new energy vehicles and the implementation of subsidies for new energy vehicles in various provinces and cities, it is widely expected that the demand of the entire industry will continue to rise rapidly in 2015 and 2016, and the growth of hybrid electric vehicles may be even more Obviously, the layout of the relevant industry chain in the early stage will also be truly implemented and reflected in 2015.
However, the optimistic trend does not mean that new energy vehicles have entered the lives of the people. At present, the hot scene of new energy is mainly due to relying on the government and policy promotion, but the problems of battery, mileage, price and supporting can not be solved in a short time. Many auto companies are not really promoting new energy vehicles. Its marketization, so the marketization of new energy vehicles is still very difficult in 2015. In other words, new energy vehicles can only achieve their essential meaning if they are universalized. This year Toyota will launch a hybrid car of Corolla and Ralink. If it is really affordable, then Chinese consumers can finally make a contribution to the blue sky, and new energy vehicles are no longer so unattainable.
3 Winning inferior and unstoppable dealers
At the end of 2014, FAW Toyota, Porsche, BMW and other brand dealers have turned their backs, causing the tension between car companies and dealers to intensify. It shows that the dealers are overwhelmed by the Jedi to be overwhelmed. In fact, it is a long-term accumulation of contradictions between dealers and car companies, and it is also the inevitable result of market development.
The hardships of dealers are not just two years. It is time for the outbreak in 2014. According to data released by the China Automobile Dealers Association, the total operating revenue of the top 100 dealers in 2013 increased by 2.4 times compared with 2009; the number of vehicle sales reached 5.553 million, compared with 1.8 times in 2009; the top 100 enterprises 4S network The number of stores reached 4,881, an increase of 2.1 times compared with the 1,556 in 2009. Undoubtedly, this set of data will inevitably show a more concentrated trend in 2014.
The game between the two sides will continue in 2015 and is expected to be more intense. Because the "Car Brand Management Measures" will launch a new version this year, the dealers will receive more policy support in order to modify the rights of the car companies too strong.
The game between the two parties will eventually lead to the reorganization of the dealership, the elimination of weak dealers, and the formation of a strong dealer group. The ultimate beneficiary is the consumer.
I am accustomed to the high-ranking car companies. This year, it is bound to pose a pro-people attitude. It is said that it will advance and retreat with the dealers. In the end, it will become the biggest focus of this year's auto market. It’s always a farce, or it’s all happy, let’s pay close attention.
4 Can the four sides of the songs be able to "turn over"?
The 2014 Japanese car was a year of counterattack, but the performance in the Chinese market was not satisfactory. According to statistics from the China Automobile Association, the sales volume of Japanese passenger cars in 2014 was 3,095,200, accounting for 15.71% of the total sales of passenger cars in China, down 0.64 percentage points from 16.35% in the previous year. The growth rate of foreign brands except Japanese brands exceeded 10%, among which the German passenger cars ranked first with 3.394 million, accounting for 20% of the total sales of passenger cars in China, up 1.19 percentage points over the previous year.
To this end, it is reported that in 2015, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mazda and other Japanese car companies will launch more than ten SUV models in China to seize the market. However, there are new products, and there is no guarantee that the sales data will be exchanged. The industry generally expects that the Japanese brand will continue to suffer in 2015. On the one hand, along with the active turnaround of independent brands, it launched an attack on the mid-end market of the joint venture brand, and seized part of the market share of the mid-level car market that Japanese is good at. In addition, the mid-to-high-end models have to bear the price of luxury cars from Europe and America. The pressure of continuous exploration, the Japanese car caught in the middle of the back of the enemy. Other various international comprehensive factors will not be described.
If Japanese cars are not selling well, the most painful thing is the Japanese car dealers, how to save themselves and become the focus of the year.
5 How to change the seat of the second camp of luxury cars
McKinsey's report predicts that China's luxury car sales will reach 2.25 million by 2016, replacing the US as the world's largest luxury car market. At present, the status of the German luxury three strongest is temporarily unable to shake, so the competition of the second group army is more intense. In 2014, Jaguar Land Rover, Lexus, Volvo led the second group army, DS replaced Yingge successfully into the top ten, and Infiniti ranked ninth.
In 2015, with the plans of several luxury brands made in China, the rankings may change. For example, Cadillac will fully exert its goal in order to achieve the goal of “100,000 vehicles in 2015â€. Cadillac will bring nine new models to the Chinese market in the next five years. By 2018, more than 95% of Cadillac products sold in China will be produced locally. This year Cadillac is the first in China to apply 4G LTE technology to a domestic model.
Infiniti has been based on last year's domestic production and will be expected to increase significantly this year. In 2015, Dongfeng Infiniti will continue to enhance its strength in products, brands and dealer networks, and create a full experience of “Dare·Love†and launch two new models, namely the domestic QX50 long wheelbase version and the imported new Q70L. After these two models enter the Chinese market, Dongfeng Infiniti will form two major product families in China, one is the “50 family†based on domestic models, and the other is a “hybrid family†based on imported models. Further strengthened.
I have to mention the Chery Jaguar Land Rover, which was originally in the leading position of the Second Group. After the domestic production this year, it will stir up the competition of the Second Group Army. In 2015, the competition of luxury brands on prices, products and brands will undoubtedly be a good show, especially for the second group of luxury cars.
6SUV continues to be popular "Blue Ocean" begins "redness"
In 2014, the sales volume of passenger cars reached 19.70 million, an increase of 9.9%. Among them, SUV increased by 36.4% year-on-year to 4,105,800 units. According to the statistical report released by the international authoritative JDPower, the market share of China's SUV segment will reach 30% of passenger cars in 2018, which reached 23% in 2013. That is to say, there is still room for improvement.
With more and more SUVs entering the market in 2015, SUVs will continue to be hot. Some experts have analyzed that on the one hand, the replacement of cars is very hot now, and the price of SUV models is not as expensive as before, which leads to the attraction of SUVs. On the other hand, SUVs are more attractive to younger groups, and young people feel that they are open. SUVs are more fashionable, and as younger groups become the mainstay of car purchases, the consumption power of SUVs will also increase. The complete product line of the entire SUV market segment has not yet been built, and there is market space to be tapped, which will bring some opportunities.
However, as more and more car companies and products participate in the competition in these two market segments, the competition is becoming more and more fierce, and the “blue ocean†will begin to “red-redâ€, such as the hot small SUV market competition in 2014. This year's pattern may have changed.
7 car networking trends swept the automotive industry
As new Internet technologies collide with more and more traditional mechanical technologies, the Internet of Vehicles is sweeping the entire automotive industry with the trend of “bloodyâ€. The boom in car networking in 2015 continues to heat up.
Following the announcement of the “Super Car†program by LeTV, Chery, Easy to use the car, and Botai Electronics announced that they would “play together a big one†to build the next generation of smart cars. Recently, there is another news that the smartphone giant Apple will be involved in smart cars. Based on data from different statistical calibers, the global car networking market is expected to reach 300 billion yuan in the next three to five years. In 2015, 60% of global models will be equipped with car networking technology. By 2020, this proportion will be further increased to 90%. .
As the protagonist of the production car, when launching a new car, it prefers to package the Internet of Vehicles technology as a big selling point rather than promoting its own traditional car technology. Most of today's models are equipped with in-vehicle interconnection systems. Whether it is a luxury brand, a joint venture brand or a self-owned brand, there is basically a certain interconnection technology reserve. After several generations of technology changes, the mainstream car system on the market has been upgraded from a primary audio-visual playback function to a variety of advanced features including communication, navigation, and social networking.
In the face of the impact of the Internet technology, many auto manufacturers have also taken the initiative to embrace the Internet. In the past year alone, there have been cases in which SAIC and Alibaba, BAIC and LeTV, Dongfeng, Changan and Huawei have joined forces. According to the cooperation methods between these enterprises, the automobile manufacturers are working from the automobile manufacturing technology, the communication company and the electronic technology, and they are working together to develop a "car system, car system to smart car". The road to future car development.
8 car e-commerce melee can change the car market pattern
In 2014, the total amount of the “Double 11†car e-commerce sales order of the car home was 6.054 billion yuan, which was doubled compared with 2013; the Tmall car and the easy car purchase activity were under the fermentation for several months. The quantity is more than 5 times that of the 2013 “Double 11†orders. On December 18, 2014, according to foreign media reports, Tiger Fund held 12.8% of the shares of Easy Car. In the near term, Tiger Fund also purchased 6.735 million shares in the car home, accounting for 6.4% of the total share capital of the car home. It seems that a war around car e-commerce will soon erupt in 2015.
In the field of used cars, the leading brand car easy to shoot has recently melted a large sum of money - $ 110 million D round of financing. This round of financing was led by Renren Company, and funds such as Sequoia Capital, Jingwei China, Morningside Venture Capital and CITIC Capital were invested. Starting from the A round in 2011, Che Yi has now completed the fourth round of financing, with a total of 185 million US dollars.
It is understood that used car e-commerce experienced a wave of capital "baptism" in 2014. C/B2B used car online shooting platform similar to the car easy to shoot mode "selling excellent letter", also has more than 100 million dollars in financing, the rising star C2C used car online virtual consignment platform everyone car, good car worry-free, have completed 2000 The latest financing of the dollar.
The 9 trillion business opportunity has been dug up and the market era is coming
In 2014, China's auto market both produced and sold 23 million units, a record high. The industry believes that with the growth of car ownership, the automotive market has gradually entered the post-market era. In 2014, the size of the automotive aftermarket has exceeded 700 billion yuan. Within 5 years, a market cake of 1 trillion yuan will be formed. Regardless of venture capital, A-share listed companies, or Internet elites, they can't wait to join this "feast."
In the case of a decline in the profit of new cars, it will become more urgent for car companies to accelerate their profits from the aftermarket. In 2015, the corresponding actions will be more. In addition, in 2014, with the deep involvement of e-commerce, car maintenance and maintenance companies and services are rapidly emerging. Car wash, maintenance and other services can be enjoyed at a low price with just a few options in the mobile app. Service, or wait for professionals to bring professional tools to the door.
In 2015, for the related companies in the automotive aftermarket, it is undoubtedly necessary to actively change the traditional concept of channel as the king, subvert the operation mode of the channel, and use the existing offline resources as a carrier to create their own Internet e-commerce service model. .
10 self-selling sales rebound is not a short-lived
In 2014, the “12 consecutive falls†plagued the autonomous passenger cars. According to sales data, sales of self-occupied passenger cars (excluding micro-customers) achieved double-digit growth overall, from 6,476,100 in 2013 to 6,264,900, an increase of 10.9%. However, the increase was less than the overall level of the passenger vehicle market (13.0%), and the market share of passenger vehicles fell by 0.6% to 33.9%.
However, in 2014, there were also independent brands that have sprung up everywhere. Changan Automobile is one of them. Its sales in 2007 exceeded 770,000 units, exceeding the sales target of 600,000 units. In 2015, Changan Automobile's sales of independent passenger vehicles reached 127,400 units in January, an increase of 62% year-on-year, leading the independent brand. According to Changan Automobile Planning, in 2015, it will hit 800,000 sales targets. Chery Automobile also performed well. After product and strategic transformation, Chery sold 460,500 passenger cars in 2014, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. In January 2015, the overall sales volume was 52,454 units, of which 43280 units were sold domestically, up 17.4% year-on-year, and the first camp of the self-owned brand automobile market was stable.
In 2015, the pressure on self-owned brands will continue to intensify, but with the completion of the strategic transformation of independent brands and the continuous introduction of new products, the market performance of independent brands in 2015 can still be expected.
ã€Related Links】
2015
Car market new deal
The development of China's auto market has not been able to circumvent the term “policyâ€. The direction of the policy often determines the direction of the market. In 2015, what other major policies will be released? In which direction will the market go? Which market shortcomings will receive policy attention? As the world's largest auto market, the release of any policy will affect the sensitive nerves of the market and affect the development of the global auto industry.
car brand
Method implementation
The new "Automobile Brand Sales Management Measures" is expected to be released this year, which will help establish a more complete automotive circulation environment. According to the previous information, the new "Automobile Brand Sales Management Measures" will change the dealer authorization from once a year to 5 years, and can automatically renew the contract. This will loosen the dealer's sales target.
Auto repair industry
Upgrade
Last year's "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Transformation and Upgrade of the Automobile Maintenance Industry to Improve Service Quality" will be officially implemented in 2015, and the existing automobile after-sales link will be rebuilt in an all-round way. The automobile after-sales market will usher in a new stage, breaking the single supply channel of auto parts, which will provide a new development space for the maintenance market and facilitate the diversification of maintenance.
C-NACP
Increased collision criteria
In the second half of the year, the 2015 version of the car crash test standard will be officially implemented, including the test project and scoring method. At the same time, the current version of the four-star and five-star evaluation criteria will be appropriately improved.
Air quality inside the car
Standard release
Regarding automobile air quality, China now only has reference standards and there are no mandatory standards. Reports of indoor air pollution in cars are often reported on the market. This year, the Ministry of Environmental Protection will improve and revise the existing “Guidelines for Air Quality Assessment in Passenger Vehicles†and introduce mandatory air quality standards for vehicles in 2015.
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